Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030?
Basic
12
αΉ4022029
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves Yes if Russia officially states that any territory it regrads as part of the country at the start of 2024 is not part of Russia anymore before January 1, 2030 (perhaps, although not necessarily, as part of a peace deal with Ukraine). This question is not about actual control or third-party recognition.
The obvious candidates are the recently annexed regions (Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts) and Crimea.
See also:
Get αΉ600 play money
Sort by:
Related questions
Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?
47% chance
Will Russia formally cede Crimea before 2030?
13% chance
Will Russia lose control of at least as much territory inside Russia as it did to Wagner by the end of 2030?
38% chance
Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2025?
9% chance
Russia collapses before 2030
22% chance
Will any part of pre-2014 Russia territory become an internationally recognized independent state by the end of 2040?
40% chance
Will Russia make a territorial claim in Antarctica, before 2030?
23% chance
Will Russia annex either Abkhazia or South Ossetia before 2030?
35% chance
By 2050, will any territory that was administered by Russia in 2013 be administered by China instead?
36% chance
Will any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030
19% chance