https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/09/civilian-toll-israeli-airstrikes-gaza-unprecedented-killing-study (via Haaretz)
This market will resolve based on future analysis from the Open University of Israel, augmented by other sources only if necessary. As noted in the article, the wars of the 20th century had an average civilian death rate of about 50%. Thus far, the bombing campaign from the IDF has averaged 61% civilian deaths inflicted. This is despite enormous advances in technology for guiding ordnance and identifying military targets, and in a geographical and social environment familiar to the Israeli military.
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@MartinRandall When OUI gives a post-war analysis. If they seem to retire from that, I will assess what the most similar source available at the time is.
@troops_h8r Almost all, yes. You can read the comments below to see that the purpose of this market is not to endorse that; quite the opposite.
@Raph These sources are considered rather liberal within Israel, and are already forming a very critical set of claims at this juncture. Maybe you are thinking of a different market?
@Raph Did you read the article? They're saying the airstrikes are the worst ever in terms of this ratio. What is your concern?
@Panfilo Your “liberal and neutral” source is quoting the same numbers as the IDF THEMSELVES.
Which if you look at the breakdown of gender and age of those murdered you’ll see that the idf is essentially just counting any military aged male a HAMAS.
I’ll direct you to this article, also from the same source you’ve used. https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/08/footage-idf-israel-military-parading-palestinian-men-around-in-underwear
The IDF humiliated these men, stripped them down naked, paraded them around as HAMAS. The deputy mayor of Jerusalem called for them to be buried alive. AND THEN several of the men were identified as journalists or UN staff.
These are the men your “analysis” will claim as HAMAS.
@Raph I don't disagree that PoWs aren't supposed to be photographed and that any civilians taken should be released and reparations made immediately. I also think Israel is an apartheid state, for what it's worth to you.
I don't understand why you are ranting at me in all caps for positions I didn't take on issues not mentioned in the market. Please take some time away to collect your thoughts and redirect that anger towards someone actually saying the things you are upset about.
For those interested, part of what makes this a good market from my PoV is that even by the standards of the perpetrators of the bombings they are of unprecedented recklessness. This seems to have gone completely over your head. This is not twitter and I am not Faceless Outgroup Guy.