Will Åland be an autonomous and demilitarized region of Finland until 2030?
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27
Ṁ1248
2030
80%
chance

As can be read on the Wikipedia page for Åland, it is currently

  1. Autonomous

  2. Demilitarized

  3. A region of Finland

and has been since at least 1920. This will resolve as YES if this continues to be true until 2030, and NO if any of these changes.

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Åland just held a presidential election, electing Alexander Stubb, who seems neutral on the matter of removing the demilitarization status. He said the following:

The matter of demilitarising Åland cannot be simplified into a yes-or-no answer. Demilitarisation is part of an international legal framework, that reaches beyond whether Finland wants to change the current situation at this particular moment in time or not. During our Nato membership process, Åland's status did not pose any problem for our allies, and Finland has no immediate need to make it a problem. Issues like this are not resolved by following current trends, but through careful consideration and in close cooperation with our western partners. Of course, we can discuss removing Åland's demilitarised status, but these debates must be conducted calmly, in collaboration with Åland residents as well as our allies.