Although personally I don't believe it's likely, I am making this market and betting YES to motivate myself.
I will never buy NO, I will never sell my YES shares, and I'm opening a limit order for YES at 50%, that I'll refill as I have liquidity, up to 10k mana.
The resolution criteria is very straightforward - if I score in the top 5 in the leaderboard in any of these competitions, the market resolves as YES.
If I win any money in a Kaggle competition, the market resolves as YES (this is usually top 3-5 spots). My kaggle username is istinetz, same as here.
If I don't do any of these things, or if I consider it astronomically unlikely, I will resolve the market as NO early.
Context about myself:
Pros:
I like machine learning
I am a data engineer
I really want this
Cons:
I don't have an ML PhD. I don't have any degree
I have never written a paper
I have never placed well in a Kaggle competition
I have a full-time job that doesn't have anything to do with reinforcement learning
I have a tendency to procrastinate on side projects
I don't have a brilliant plan to game the rules, or a trick up my sleeve
I previously made a similar market that resolved NO