Will Ben Goldhaber win his provably unpickable lock bet
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Plus
23
Ṁ1528
2028
18%
chance

Zac Hatfield-Dodds has bet $10k to Ben Goldhaber's $1k that there will be no unpickable lock by 2027. This is related to claims that provably safe AI will be feasible.

Zac says:

"I win at the end of 2026, if there has not been a formally-verified design for a mechanical lock, OR the design does not verify it cannot be mechanically picked, OR less than three consistent physical instances have been manufactured. (e.g. a total of three including prototypes or other designs doesn't count)

You win if at the end of 2027, there have been credible and failed expert attempts to pick such a lock (e.g. an open challenge at Defcon). I win if there is a successful attempt."

See https://gsai.substack.com/p/august-2024-progress-in-guaranteed and https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P8XcbnYi7ooB2KR2j/provably-safe-ai-worldview-and-projects#Ku3X4QDBSyZhrtxkM for more details.

This market will resolve YES if Ben wins the bet, NO if Zac wins, and will resolve N/A if the bet resolves as neutral or does not get resolved. I will rely on the opinion of the arbiter (@raemon) if there's a dispute.

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Resolves yes if someone claims to have developed an unpickable lock, and people have tried and failed to pick it.

Or simpler: “resolves yes if a credibly unpickable lock is produced”

TBH, title should be

“Will Ben Goldhaber win the bet that a credibly unpickable lock will be produced”

@DavidFWatson I had to read the post multiple times troll I was certain I'm betting the way I meant to

+ 1 that phrasing is confusing

also confused by the price, i'd have thought it's gotta be pretty doable. ig many people have tried without success?

@Bayesian my limited understanding is that no one has really ever made an unpickable lock

@DavidFWatson Honestly it feels similar to halting problem to me and like there should be a proof that you cannot make a unpickable lock.

@Enlil it's a question of technical complexity vs human dexterity, I'd suspect it's eventually possible, but if it has not happened in all of human history, no reason to think it'll happen in a year or so.

Especially without a lot more money motivating it

@DavidFWatson Mh, would using a device that picks the lock technically count as lock picking?

@Enlil what's a bump key, if not a device that picks a lock?

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