By-election update: In the riding of Cloverdale-Langley City, the Conservative candidate utterly demolished the new candidate for the incumbent Liberal party. In the 2021 election, the Liberal candidate got 39.21% of the vote and the Conservatives, 36.10%. In the 2024 by-election the Conservative candidate got 66.30% of the vote and the Liberals, in a distant second, 16.03%. That's an astonishing 26.69 percentage point swing. In fact, every single party lost votes except for the Conservatives, showcasing their dominance in ability to attract voters from all across the political spectrum:

338Canada update:

Major parties:

• Conservatives achieve their highest ever seat projection of 232, up from 229. They are projected to obtain a supermajority. Conservatives also achieve their highest ever popular vote projection, at 45%, up from 44%

• The Bloc Quebecois, now the second largest party, maintained an all time high of 45 seats, and obtained a 61% of becoming the official opposition, their highest ever yet, up from 43%. They maintain their all time high vote percentage of 8%

Minor parties:

• Liberals achieve their lowest ever seat projection of just 39, down from 51, with their chance of remaining the official opposition at a staggering 36%, an all-time low, down from 56%. Liberals achieve their lowest ever popular vote projection of 20%, down from 22%

• The NDP is projected to win 25 seats, the same number won last election. Their chances of becoming the official opposition rise to an all time high of 3%, up from less than 1%. They are projected to get 19% of popular vote, up from 18% in the previous election

Regional landscape:

• The Conservatives are projected to win a supermajority of seats in every province except Quebec, where the Bloc Quebecois wins a majority

• The Liberals are projected to win 0 seats in: Alberta, Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nunavut. Nova Scotia is a new addition, previously having 2 Liberal seats projected

• The Liberals are projected to win just 1 seat in: British Columbia, Manitoba, and Newfoundland and Labrador

• The Liberals are projected to win just 2 seats in New Brunswick

• Combining Ontario and Quebec, the Liberals are projected to get just 17% of their seats

• Trudeau's previously safe seat of Papineau is now only a leaning seat, with an all-time low 74% chance of winning his own seat, NDP at 26% chance of winning it

@gwylim Can you please sell your Maxime Bernier shares? I plan on editing it to be something else. Let me know when you do so, thanks.

If you lose any mana let me know and I'll reimburse you. Also I think I robbed you last time, I think I should have paid you your expected payout had it resolved No. Let me know what it is and I'll pay double (assuming it's similar to what Elizabeth May's was)

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh succumbs to political pressure and will force an election early next year. Polls showing results if an election were held today now have more weight as there is little time to change before an election is called

@PeterNjeim if Trudeau resigns he probably won’t

@cadca Maybe, but siding with the Liberals will be politically costly, I hope that's incentive enough

@gwylim Can you please sell your Elizabeth May shares? I plan on editing it to be something else. Let me know when you do so, thanks.

If you lose any mana let me know and I'll reimburse you.

@PeterNjeim Sold, gained a small profit

338Canada update:

Conservatives achieve their highest ever seat projection of 229, up from 228. They are projected to obtain 66.8% of seats in Canada, a supermajority.

Liberals achieve their lowest ever seat projection of just 51, with their chance of remaining the official opposition at 73%, an all-time low, and with the Bloc Quebecois at 27%.

338Canada update:

Conservatives achieve their highest ever seat projection of 228, up from 221. They are now projected to sweep Saskatchewan and PEI, and all but one seat in Alberta. They are projected to obtain 81.1% of seats in English Canada (all regions excluding Quebec), and 66.5% of seats in all of Canada, a near supermajority.

Liberals achieve their lowest ever seat projection of just 53, prompting the creation of a new graph to showcase their chance of remaining the official opposition, which is 83%, with the Bloc Quebecois at 17%.

Major update: 3 consecutive polls now have the NDP and the Liberals in a statistical tie, with two of them showing the NDP above the Liberals:

The NDP hasn't polled above the Liberals since 2015, 9 years ago. Conservatives continue to dominate, with a commanding 24 point lead over the NDP

338Canada now has their highest ever projected total seats for the Conservatives at 221, Liberals at their lowest ever projected seat total of 61. Bloc Quebecois remains at their record high while the NDP remains near their record low:

New 338Canada update:

Conservatives at their all-time high seat projection, and Liberals at their all-time low seat projection. Bloc surges while NDP languishes near all-time low:

When it comes to the popular vote, a similar story is told, with the Conservatives near their all-time high:

Conservatives maintain their greater than 99% chance of victory:

@PeterNjeim surely you don’t actually believe its >99%, right?

@spider when did I say that? Please read the comments below to learn my opinion, not gonna repeat myself ad nauseum

@PeterNjeim good, I assumed you didn’t.

Conservatives are now utterly dominant in the polls:

Second Liberal stronghold collapses:

NDP narrowly maintains stronghold, Conservatives rise markedly:

Resolution if Liberals win under a leader other than JT?

As explained earlier in the comments, this market was poorly made and will simply become less accurate if one of the candidates leaves. The JT option is for JT only, not a hypothetical Liberal candidate. As of the time of writing, this market would resolve N/A if none of the listed candidates win. However, there's some talk about whether Manifold will add an auction system, where I could close the market, change the JT option to a new Liberal candidate, and then hold an auction to make it fair when reentering the market with this new option. But unless a fair method of closing and reopening the market is added, I won't be doing that

@PeterNjeim it might be worth editing the description to include this, given the volume of comments.

@spider it's not really that important, the market is asking if a specific candidate will win, if someone interprets that as meaning a certain party, that's them misreading it

New Abacus poll shows 20 point lead for the Conservatives. First time for Abacus since June 13th, 2024. That's two huge polls on the same day:

90% a year out is very bold.

In 2015 Trudeau was toast until a just couple weeks out

Haven't we already spoken about this? The important stat isn't Trudeau, it's about monumental unpopularity in the third term

Yeah I’m not focusing on Trudeau in particular being the comeback kid. I just mean that a lot of things can happen in a year. The race shifted in just two weeks in summer 2015.