Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election?
1k
2.6kṀ3.5m
Apr 30
84%
Mark Carney (or other Liberal leader)
16%
Pierre Poilievre

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LOESS curve of opinion polls of voters for the 2025 Canadian federal election campaign:

Dark mode for viewing pleasure:

Up-to-date as of April 18, 2025. 30-poll smoothing factor. Square root applied to sample sizes when weighting. Highlight ribbon is of 95% confidence interval of local regression standard error (not polling margin of error).

bought Ṁ1,500 YES

pierre poudrière gagnera l’élection ou il y aura des consequences néfastes pour l’économie du cacanada

@beaver1 l'économie du cacanada sera caca avec cacarney:

sad to see that the debates (which Carney bombed hard on) had little to no impact on this market or the polls. The country really IS asleep.

Have you ever felt like Erwin Rommel, fighting in righteous fashion, but on the wrong side of the war?

@Tumbles waiting for Carneyites to answer

opened a Ṁ50,000 NO at 95% order

@Tumbles If you want to defect I've put up an order at 95.

@PeterNjeim I for one am only fighting for maximum EV

Look at this bitches. 👀 The convergence is coming.

@Predictor pretty much every poll has been showing a tightening. There's still time to get the right outcome

This is an impossible “gotcha” question, and the hosts should be ashamed of their behavior.

I dare any of you to say a single thing that you actually like about Quebec. See? The silence is deafening. Carney is being punished for his honesty.

osti calisse

Electoral democracies have almost nothing to do with policy, only vibes. Expecting rational discourse during a campaign will only lead to cynicism.

Futarchy4Life

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@PeterNjeim Futarchy is already here: we short the market and sell treasury notes and boom, the president immediately reverses his policies!

@Joshua And as a central banker, Carney should be even more inclined to simply do what the market is pricing in that he'll do. Futarchy!

@Joshua I recall you mentioning him being a central banker earlier in reference to futarchy. I didn't respond that time but I will now, Pierre Poilievre is more pro-free market than Carney lmao

@Ziddletwix

I dare any of you to say a single thing that you actually like about Quebec

Château Frontenac looks pretty cool

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