Various people have been making markets about whether their relatives will know who Sam Altman is so I thought I'd invert the question. Does Sam Altman know about me?
He almost certainly doesn't know who I am right now. To make things interesting then, I've set the time frame for 5 years (3rd of May 2029). If there is good evidence that Sam Altman knows of me by my name, or by a pseudonym before then, this market resolves positively. The knowledge does not have to be detailed. Merely sharing or commenting on an article would be sufficient. If there is no publicly available evidence Sam A knows who I am by the closing date, the market resolves negatively regardless of what in Sam's heart of hearts.
Are there any reasons to think Sam Altman might learn who I am by the specified date?
* I'm an early career academic working on, among other things, the philosophy of AI with core interests in areas like safety and the philosophy of mind and AI. It is conceivable he might see some of my work.
*My Substack, Philosophy Bear, has 2000 followers. It regularly posts about AI. Not exactly a powerhouse, but in the game and growing.
* Daniel Kokotajlo, a gentleman and a scholar, who quit OpenAI over concerns about their dedication to AI safety, is a paid subscriber to my blog, thus I am one degree of separation away from Sam Altman. I have probably about 3 or so other one-degree of separation links.
* I find the idea of this market resolving positively moderately amusing, and I am influenced by vanity just like everyone else, and will therefore take, within the bounds of good social and aesthetic taste, modest steps towards alerting Sam Altman of my existence.
*If the singularity happens before then and some or all of us are cognitively uplifted its possible that Sam Altman will know who every single person on the planet is.
*This market is potentially hyperstitious. If it becomes big and memetic enough, it may well resolve itself.
Are there any reasons to think Sam Altman will not learn who I am?
*There are plenty of people writing on AI who Sam Altman doesn't know about, probably even some (moderately) prominent people. Come on, be serious.