Which people will be elected U.S. president before 2033?

1.8kṀ12k

2033

27%

J.D. Vance

10%

Gretchen Whitmer

Nikki Haley

Josh Shapiro

Kamala Harris

Gavin Newsom

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Raphael Warnock

Joe Biden

@Mira

John Fetterman

Ron DeSantis

Resolved

YES

Donald Trump

Unlinked free response. Resolves to all people who are elected president before 2033. Becoming president by other means does not count.

Politics

US Politics

2024 US Presidential Election

Future US Presidents

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bought Ṁ350 YES

@PlasmaBallin Resolves YES

By "elected president", would that include someone who acceded to the presidency because their predecessor died in office?

@PaintspotInfez no

Why does Biden have a probability so much higher here than in the 2024 election markets? Do people seriously think he's going to lose, run again, and win?

@PlasmaBallin If that scenario occurs, then it worked for Trump, right?

@AndrewHartman Yes, but I think it's much less likely that Biden will pull it off. Trump is a special case in that the majority of the Republican Party is completely devoted to him (and many are more loyal to him than the party itself), and in that he's convinced most of the party that he didn't really lose in 2020, so he doesn't get treated like a failed nominee.