Will Manifold's calibration be better at the end of 2024? | Manifold

Will Manifold's calibration be better at the end of 2024?

Basic

11

Ṁ241

Jul 4

1D

1W

1M

ALL

80%

Better

15%

Worse

5%

The same

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What would be the condition for “the same?”

Better than what, by what metric?

@jskf Probably Brier score, right? But then it's very unlikely to be exactly the same.

https://manifold.markets/calibration
(The page seems to not loading at the moment though...)

Platform calibration

Manifold’s overall track record

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