Will the United States pull out of the USMCA by the end of 2025?
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36%
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This question will resolve to yes if:
1) The United States gives written notice to withdraw under Article 34.6 on or before Dec. 31, 2025, or;
2) The United States imposes tariffs on either party (US or Mexico) such that the United States' average volume-adjusted tariff rate on either party exceeds 2% (the current US baseline industrial tariff). This figure will be calculated by applying the tariff rates effective Dec. 31, 2025 on the export profiles of Mexico and Canada for the calendar year 2024.
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