Will prediction markets be able to predict the month any given person would die by > 95% by 2035?
Plus
11
Ṁ25242035
24%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves if by 2030 there exists a death market that is so efficient, that if you were to put someone's name in it, it will tell you the correct day they would die +-30 days, 95% of the time.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
is the 95% the accuracy? as in: if the person does die that month, then it's a yes, and if they don’t die that month, it’s a no, and the Yes must be 95% of all predictions?
Also, how far in advance are we talking? currently most death markets probably resolve with 99% accuracy, because someone hears reports of someone’s death, and they bet a lot before the market is resolved. But that’s not really “predicting” anything.
Sort of like shimigami eyes from deathnote
Related questions
Related questions
Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?
70% chance
Will people care about prediction markets by 2025?
30% chance
Will r/PredictionMarkets have more than 100 members by the end of 2024?
50% chance
Which one is the most accurate prediction market? (2024)
Which prediction markets and forecasting platforms will still be opening new markets/questions through 2028?
Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? 📜🏛️⚖️📊
27% chance
Will prediction markets feature on the 80,000 Hours podcast by the end of 2024?
31% chance
Will there be a platform for user-generated prediction markets that specializes in markets for personal goals by 2035?
Which one is the most enjoyable prediction market? (2025)
Will investment firms be interested in prediction market platforms before the end of 2024?
78% chance