Background

In January 2025, the Biden administration introduced new export controls on advanced computing chips and AI models, aimed at protecting U.S. technological advantages while promoting responsible AI development globally. These controls include restrictions on the export of advanced semiconductors and AI model weights above certain thresholds.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if the Trump administration maintains the core elements of the January 2025 AI diffusion export controls through their first 6 months in office (through July 2025), with only minor modifications that don't substantially alter the framework's scope or impact.

The market will resolve NO if the Trump administration either:

• Significantly rolls back or eliminates major portions of the controls

• Makes substantial modifications that materially reduce their scope or enforcement

• Replaces them with a fundamentally different framework

Considerations

• Industry groups and chip manufacturers have expressed strong opposition to these controls, viewing them as overly broad and burdensome

• The regulations were introduced in the final days of the Biden administration, making them a likely target for review

• The fundamental national security concerns that motivated these controls remain relevant, which may influence the new administration's approach

• The Trump administration will need to balance industry concerns with maintaining technological advantages over strategic competitors