Will the US implement software export controls for frontier AI models by 2028?
Basic
20
Ṁ3782028
74%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market will resolve to yes if the US creates a policy by 2028 to control the export of frontier AI models, which are defined as those with highly general capabilities (over a certain threshold) or trained with a certain compute budget (e.g. as much compute as $1 billion can buy today). The policy may also restrict API access. This policy aims to limit the proliferation of AI models that pose significant risks, such as powerful AI technology falling into the wrong hands.
Luke Muehlhauser from Open Philanthropy suggests this idea in his April 2023 post, "12 tentative ideas for US AI policy." This market idea was proposed by Michael Chen.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?
77% chance
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)
23% chance
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing)
31% chance
Will the US regulate AI development by end of 2025?
42% chance
Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?
42% chance
Will the US government enact legislation before 2026 that substantially slows US AI progress?
27% chance
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses)
19% chance
Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?
35% chance