Will the US implement testing and evaluation requirements for frontier AI models by 2028?
Basic
6
Ṁ1002028
82%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market will resolve to yes if the US creates a policy by 2028 requiring safety testing and evaluation for frontier AI models, which are defined as those with highly general capabilities (over a certain threshold) or trained with a certain compute budget (e.g. as much compute as $1 billion can buy today). The policy should also mandate independent audits by qualified auditors to assess the safety and performance of these models.
Luke Muehlhauser from Open Philanthropy suggests this idea in his April 2023 post, "12 tentative ideas for US AI policy." This market idea was proposed by Michael Chen.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will the US government commit to legal restrictions on large AI training runs by January 1st, 2025?
5% chance
Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?
50% chance
Will the US implement software export controls for frontier AI models by 2028?
74% chance
Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?
57% chance
Will the US government require AI labs to run safety/alignment evals by 2025?
21% chance
Will the US regulate AI development by end of 2025?
43% chance
Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?
40% chance
Will the US implement information security requirements for frontier AI models by 2028?
88% chance
Will the US establish a clear AI developer liability framework for AI harms by 2028?
39% chance
Will the US fund defensive information security R&D for limiting unintended proliferation of dangerous AI models by 2028
53% chance