Hedging

@AndrewG

Another proxy from the March 2024 election, The "Democrats for Change" are the non-dean-aligned candidate slate, and the "Labor and Working Families" is the dean-aligned candidate slate.

Matt Haney endorsement or near-endorsement seems like a big deal to me. Dean and his political faction are seeming more isolated. https://x.com/MattHaneySF/status/1749943069695500307?s=20

Incumbency advantage and the second-most left leaning district in the city makes me think anything below 50% is too low

Elon Musk just promised to give $100k to the campaign if anyone who runs against him. I wonder if that helps or hurts Preston.

A better proxy is the Chesa recall vote.

A reasonable proxy for Dean's election is the number of people who voted yes on Prop D (which Dean campaigned against). https://electionmapsf.com/?county=SFO&election=11-2022#

Most of his district (d5 in the middle), voted for it.

Election Map SF

Browse interactive maps of every race in San Francisco elections.

@EvanConrad3b7e A majority voted for Prop E as well. I don’t think it’s a good indicator of the district’s tendencies.