This market resolves YES if Marine Le Pen is legally barred from running for French President in 2027.
Main context: in her current embezzlement trial verdict, she is facing up to 5 years of ineligibility.
The market resolves YES if:
there is a legal ban from her running for president that is applicable to the 2027 election.
This could be the case for example:
Because the court ruling is provisionally executable (meaning it takes effect regardless of appeals).
Because she has gone through all possible appeals and is sentenced in a final, no long appealable manner.
Market resolves NO if she can still run for president, even if a court ruling has sentenced her to ineligibility but the ruling, for any reason, is not applicable at the time of the presidential election.
Sources:
1,000
3.00There’s already a petition against her being hypothetically barred from running:
https://rassemblementnational.fr/petition/defendez-la-democratie-soutenez-marine
“Prosecutors urged the presiding judge to enforce the sentence immediately, which would bar Le Pen from running for office during any appeal process.”
“leader of the French far right, said the punishment being sought by prosecutors — which includes an immediate five-year ban on running for office — is tantamount to “a political death sentence because it’s irreparable.””