Will Retro Biosciences succeed in increasing healthy human lifespan by ten years? | Manifold

Will Retro Biosciences succeed in increasing healthy human lifespan by ten years?

Plus

15

Ṁ226

2040

18%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Announcement here: https://retro.bio/announcement/

Will resolve yes if the mission is considered accomplished at the begining of 2040.

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A problem with this market is that if a different organization contributes to this as well, it's hard to figure out the causality of whether or not Retro should be given credit.

Sam Altman has invested a significant fraction of his wealth in this company

The website has a lot of fancy words and little science/data to show for it. Just saying “cell reprogramming” tells me nothing about the feasibility of their ideas.

predicts NO

@drcat https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-12-19/longevity-startup-retro-biosciences-is-sam-altman-s-shot-at-life-extension This tells me More, i trust their methods better now but I’m not still sure they will succeed

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