Background

The United States is currently a key military and financial supporter of Ukraine in its ongoing conflict with Russia. The U.S. has provided billions in military aid to Ukraine and maintains a strong alliance with the country. There is no historical precedent for U.S. military action against Ukraine, nor any current policy discussions suggesting such a dramatic shift in relations.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve as YES if the United States conducts direct military strikes or launches a military invasion against Ukrainian territory during the 2025 calendar year. This includes:

• Air strikes

• Missile attacks

• Ground invasion

• Naval engagement

The market will resolve as NO if:

• No military attacks occur

• The U.S. continues its current policy of supporting Ukraine

• Military aid or training is provided to Ukraine

• Diplomatic tensions arise but no military action is taken

Accidental engagements or friendly fire incidents will not count as an attack for market resolution purposes.

Considerations

• The U.S. and Ukraine are currently strategic allies with extensive military cooperation

• A U.S. attack would represent an unprecedented reversal of long-standing foreign policy

• Current U.S. policy focuses on supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression and potentially facilitating peace negotiations

• Major policy shifts typically require Congressional approval and would likely face significant domestic and international opposition

• Update 2025-02-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Attacks on Ukrainian Territory Clarification:

  • Target Requirement: For the market to resolve as YES, the attack must be specifically directed at Ukrainian forces.

  • Ambiguous Territory: If an attack occurs in territory that, while internationally recognized as Ukrainian, is under control of another force (e.g., currently held by Russian forces), the outcome depends on whether the target of the attack is the Ukrainian forces rather than simply the territory itself.