Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before June 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35
/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57
/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840
/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20-370feb584056
/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20-da21ae1ffcdd (this question)
/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20-09d441d0d15e
/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20-f155aef83a4b
/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20-b4b9e56da814
/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20-7426e1e5392e
/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20-de1a0d74aaab
/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20-0a804511572e
/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20-6e2ba03f7479
/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-5a18f221c267
/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20
/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20
/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20
/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20
/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20
/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20
/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20
/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20
/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20
/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20
/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20
/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20
Other questions for Jun 2024:
/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20-da21ae1ffcdd (this question)
/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-june-2
In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, GPT-5 must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before the specified date.
A release of the text component alone is sufficient to resolve this question as YES. However, a staged release (a release of a smaller model than the largest version of GPT-5) is not considered to be the "release" in the context of this question.
If access is restricted (e.g. due to resource availability limitations) at this question's end date, then this market resolves as YES only if the majority of existing paying accounts on OpenAI's premium offer that were subscribed a week prior to this end date can use the model. This must be true in at least 4 of the countries listed above. The anywhere on earth time zone is used for this question.
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@HandasonTam I'd say no, I'll update the description to clarify this. Was mostly waiting to see if they'd release an intermediate model (like gpt-4o) to avoid confusion.
It'd say it's likely that they'll rebrand it given the signals we've been hearing, so need to think of some criteria that makes sense.