Will Ukraine fire an ATACMS missile into Russia before September 1st 2026?
Basic
17
Ṁ12212026
98.3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Ukraine has fired an ATACMS missile into Russia before September 1st 2026.
If there is only weak evidence that this has occurred, this question resolves as N/A. If there is no evidence, then this question resolves as NO.
"Russia" is defined as its 1991 borders. Crimea/Donbas are not Russia.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will Russia launch a RS-26 Rubezh missile at Ukraine before December 31, 2024?
80% chance
Will the US permit Ukraine to strike into Russia before 2025
96% chance
Will Russia shoot down an F-16 over Ukraine before the end of 2025?
79% chance
Will Russia hit Kiev with an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in 2024?
14% chance
Will a NATO aircraft shoot down a missile or drone fired towards a target in Ukraine before 2027?
61% chance
Will Ukraine demonstrate a domestically-produced intermediate-range ballistic missile by the end of 2025?
45% chance
Will Ukraine demonstrate a domestically-produced short-range ballistic missile by the end of 2025?
44% chance
Will Russia launch a RS-26 Rubezh missile at Ukraine before January 20, 2029?
89% chance
Will Ukraine demonstrate a domestically-produced medium-range ballistic missile by the end of 2025?
46% chance
Will any other country provide air defence coverage for Ukraine, before June 2025?
20% chance