Will a robot zero-shot assemble a 100+ piece Lego set in 2024?
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Jan 1
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Resolves to Yes if, in either a live demo or a credible online video, an autonomous robot system is handed a new Lego box that it has not specifically been trained to assemble, and the robot opens the box, looks at the printed instructions, and correctly assembles the set.

This does not have to be a general system; it is fine if the system is specifically trained to do Lego assembly, on other Lego sets. Applying stickers is not required.

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The site gave me some free questions, so I made a multi-year version:

https://manifold.markets/RichardBruns/when-will-a-robot-zeroshot-assemble