Will there be a war between Iran and Israel by the end of 2024
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Plus
207
Ṁ97k
Jan 1
12%
chance

Resolving criteria:

1) formal war is declared (yes)

2) informal war is declared, which is commonly accepted as a war (Ukraine invasion, operation ensuing freedom, etc) (yes) - the current Israel intervention in Gaza is considered a war; the current relationship between Israel and Hezbollah is not considered a war. (Edit Oct 1, it is probably considered a war between Hezbollah and Israel now, however this does not include Iran as Iran has not joined the war)

3) 2024 ends (no)

Non resolving criteria

1) threats of war

2) minor bombing/ rocket attacks/ cyberwarfare (stuxnet would not resolve)

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bought Ṁ100 NO

What counts as "minor bombing"? Would the Israeli strikes on Lebanon before the land invasion count as war?

@zsig

> The current relationship between Israel and Hezbollah is not considered a war (Edit Oct 1; it is probably considered a war now)

@RichardGao You don't mean to say whatever is going on in Lebanon is now a war between Israel and Iran, correct?

@GazDownright Israel - Hezbollah is what is considering as a war (which imo is weird because Hezbollah isn't a country so it won't fit the definition, though they did got Lebanon involved so it's hard to say, maybe are we counting Israel - Lebanon as a war even though the Lebanese government didn't cause it?)

@Choms yes, you raise a valid point. I think it's an important discussion, however perhaps a bit of an aside in terms of an Israel-Iran war maybe?

@GazDownright probably yes, I'm a YES holder but I wouldn't consider them at war yet (though it's really really tense, probably if Iran actually responds it's gonna turn hot, but theta is also decaying fast for the market so dunno, holding for now)

Limit orders here works like a charm to get notifications when "something" happens lol

"We are at the height of a difficult war against Iran's Axis of Evil, which wants to destroy us." interesting.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-it-has-finished-attack-israel-amid-fears-spreading-conflict-2024-10-02/

What is the threshold for war?

When it is

A) formally declared

B) generally recognized as war (i.e. Russia and Ukraine, or Operation ensuing freedom)

Please can you put that in the res criteria.

Do you specifically mean a declared war? Because they've definitely been shooting at each other, both directly and with proxies.

opened a Ṁ146 YES at 20% order

@traders limit order up at 20% if you want to bet NO.

@GazDownright ?

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