This market will settle as YES if there is one or more significant riots related to the US presidential election between October 28, 2024, and midnight Eastern Time on January 20, 2025.
To settle as YES, the following criteria must be met:
One or more incidents referred to by credible news sources as riots, involving at least 500 participants across one or more cities motivated by the same grievance, leading to either:
A) The death or hospitalization of at least 10 people—including rioters, police, bystanders, targets, or others,
or
B) At least $1 million in property damage.
All criteria must be met by the same side. For example, if Harris supporters cause $500K in damages and Trump supporters cause another $500K in damages in different cities, this will not be sufficient to settle the market as YES. Edge cases with ambiguities under the resolution criteria will be settled in accordance with the spirit of the market.
1,000
3.00@TiredCliche Most of the chance of rioting was from Trump supporters protesting his loss, and they won’t do that given that he won
@TiredCliche there’s really no controversy around this election result. No one is saying Russia interfered (enough to matter) or that there was ballot stuffing going on. Certainly folks whose candidate lost are disappointed, but it was a clear and resounding Trump victory.
@TiredCliche since it was a landslide victory for Trump there aren't many people around to protest.
@breck No, there are going to be accusations about the musk bribery thing. I dont know whether they're going to be big, loud accusations, or if most people are going to accept that that probably didn't affect the overall election result. I hope for the latter, every time there is accusation of election interference it gets us deeper into legitimacy crisis. But twitter is a hell of a drug, so we'll see. (Note that most of the reason I bet on this market is just to keep my prediction streak going)
WSJ: The Proud Boys Have Regrouped and Are Signaling Election Plans
@VandelayIndustries if the Proud Boys become a thing again and plan on having any kind of public rally/gathering, then that means we can 100% expect some Antifa/Antifa-type groups to show up in response. Which, in my eyes, pushes the likelihood that this market settles to YES much higher.
Shamelessly long on rioting.
$1 million property damage seems to be quite a low bar to clear, IMO.
Durrr ignore this, I am stupid and was figuring out how the commenting feature on this site actually works
Businesses in downtown Portland are preemptively boarding up windows https://www.reddit.com/r/Portland/comments/1ghooe8/plywood_going_back_up_in_downtown/
at first I was considering whether this was essentially just asking 'will trump win or not' because I view his loss resulting in this scale of riot basically a lock lol
what i hadn't considered is that i think there is a legitimate chance many trump supporters riot EVEN IF he wins yhe whole election just because there may be a delayed count in a particular state, a particulaely close result, a unwon swing state... etc.
@NoahRich I think you're overestimating the risk. If he wins I highly doubt there'll be any real rioting (from either side). If he loses, there's a decent chance of rioting but saying it's near-certain seems way too extreme. You have to factor in that many people are aware of the poor optics (and legal repercussions and overall bad vibes) of January 6 and will not want to be seen as doing J6 2.0.
That said, if Trump loses I do think it's near-guaranteed that the election denialism is going to be unmatched in American history. Social media is going to get 1000000x worse.
@birdbatch 500people and $1m in damages is paltry. Jan 6th was like 2000 people. To meet the criteria of this bet they'd only need to be a quarter as large.
I view that as possible even in the circumstance trump loses a close state prior to the election even being done.
The threats toward poll workers in Michigan and other places in 2020 would nearly eclipse this criteria, and that was a not even newsworthy hardly in 2020/2021
@NoahRich are you forgetting that there were riots in 2016 after Trump won? Certainly nowhere near as significant as what would later happen in 2020 but by no means were they minor.
$1 million in damage is basically nothing, a small group of dedicated anarchists in Portland could do that much in an evening, easily.
@dieselbaby1337 Brother I agree with you lol. I think you replied to the wrong guy.
If your point is that I wasn't considering that Kamala supporters would riot if she lost, yeah. I figured that went without saying, just like how i prefaced my comment that ofc there was a possibility of trump supporters rioting if he lost.