Will David Austin Walsh get a tenure track offer? | Manifold

Will David Austin Walsh get a tenure track offer?

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24

Ṁ21k

2025

23%

chance

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This market will resolve as YES if David Austin Walsh receives an offer for a tenure-track position by the end of August 2025. The market will still settle as YES if he gets an offer and turns it down, as long as the market maker deems it more likely than not that an offer was made based on publicly available evidence and whatever I learn through other channels. This offer must be in the United States or Canada.

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opened a Ṁ50,000 NO at 30% order

@MichaelWheatley bigger bet? 50k order

bought Ṁ1,500 YES

@jacksonpolack Sure. let me just buy the mana though.

@MichaelWheatley Actually, one year is a pretty tight timeline. I could do 4 years and any-western-country.

@MichaelWheatley the interest rate on that is awful so ill do smaller bet but sure

@jacksonpolack what do you mean by smaller?

I was originally envisioning a side bet but then I remembered managrams don't exist anymore.

@MichaelWheatley 10k or lower, 50k is 1/10th of my current balance

@MichaelWheatley managrams are back in case you still want to do this

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