Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 3 years? | Manifold

Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 3 years?

Basic

10

Ṁ310

2026

58%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves to NO if I'm spending less than half of my working time doing alignment research at Redwood Research.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Redwood Research

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

predicts NO

Will Redwood Research still exist in 3 years?

51% chance. Resolves to NO if an organization called Redwood Research still exists, but has 1 or fewer employees working full time on alignment research.

According to this market, there's only a 50% chance of Redwood existing in 3 years.
https://manifold.markets/RyanGreenblatt/will-redwood-research-still-exist-i-61212f9cdb2f

Related questions

Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 2 years?

Will Redwood Research still exist in 3 years?

Will Redwood Research still exist in 2 years?

In 2024, will the majority of Redwood researchers think it would have been better if they had left Redwood in 2023?

Conditional on not having died from unaligned AGI, I consider myself a full time alignment researcher by the end of 2030

Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 5 years?

Will I have a career as an alignment researcher by the end of 2024?

Will Redwood Research still exist in 5 years?

Will I think that alignment is no longer "preparadigmatic" by the start of 2026?

How much money will Tetra get for alignment research in 2024?

Related questions

Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 2 years?

Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 5 years?

Will Redwood Research still exist in 3 years?

Will I have a career as an alignment researcher by the end of 2024?

Will Redwood Research still exist in 2 years?

Will Redwood Research still exist in 5 years?

In 2024, will the majority of Redwood researchers think it would have been better if they had left Redwood in 2023?

Will I think that alignment is no longer "preparadigmatic" by the start of 2026?

Conditional on not having died from unaligned AGI, I consider myself a full time alignment researcher by the end of 2030

How much money will Tetra get for alignment research in 2024?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules