Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 3 years?
Basic
10
Ṁ3102026
58%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to NO if I'm spending less than half of my working time doing alignment research at Redwood Research.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
According to this market, there's only a 50% chance of Redwood existing in 3 years.
https://manifold.markets/RyanGreenblatt/will-redwood-research-still-exist-i-61212f9cdb2f
Related questions
Related questions
Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 2 years?
74% chance
Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 5 years?
30% chance
Will I have a career as an alignment researcher by the end of 2024?
38% chance
Will Redwood Research still exist in 3 years?
36% chance
Will Redwood Research still exist in 2 years?
79% chance
How much money will Tetra get for alignment research in 2024?
Will Redwood Research still exist in 5 years?
32% chance
In 2024, will the majority of Redwood researchers think it would have been better if they had left Redwood in 2023?
26% chance
WhiteBox Research will have at least four fellows spending ≥10 h/wk on an alignment-oriented project by EoY 2024.
79% chance
Will I think that alignment is no longer "preparadigmatic" by the start of 2026?
41% chance