Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 3 years?
11
170Ṁ370
2026
70%
chance
10

Resolves to NO if I'm spending less than half of my working time doing alignment research at Redwood Research.

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Will Redwood Research still exist in 3 years?
51% chance. Resolves to NO if an organization called Redwood Research still exists, but has 1 or fewer employees working full time on alignment research.

According to this market, there's only a 50% chance of Redwood existing in 3 years.
https://manifold.markets/RyanGreenblatt/will-redwood-research-still-exist-i-61212f9cdb2f

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