How many novel drugs will be approved by the US Food and Drug Administration for rare (aka "orphan") diseases in 2024?
Basic
5
Ṁ815Jan 1
1.1%
Under 12
3%
Between 12 and 19
75%
Between 20 and 27
15%
Between 28 and 35
6%
More than 35
Over the past decade, the percentage of novel drug approvals for rare diseases (diseases that affect fewer than 200,000 people in the US) has increased (FDA - Rare Disease Day 2023, Pharmaceutical Technology). In 2022, the FDA approved 20 novel drugs for rare diseases (FDA - New Drug Therapy Approvals 2022).
The question will close on December 31, 2024. Resolution will happen some time later, matching that of this same question on Good Judgment Open. If something prevents GJO from resolving their question, I will make a good-faith effort to resolve it myself.
As is my standing policy, I do not bet on the markets I create.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
💊Will FDA approve 50 or more novel drugs in 2024?
84% chance
💊Will FDA approve 50 or more novel drugs in 2025?
76% chance
The FDA will approve an AI developed cure before the end of the decade (<2030) for a previously incurable major illness.
54% chance
Will a drug to be used by most healthy adults be approved by 2043 year end?
66% chance
Will an AI-designed drug get FDA approval by the end of 2025?
30% chance
Will AOH1996 be FDA approved before 2040?
44% chance
Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?
29% chance
Will a novel therapeutic/device which confers a survival benefit for glioblastoma be FDA approved by EOY 2028?
51% chance
The FDA will approve a drug for the treatment of senescence (aging) before the end of the decade (before 2030)
24% chance
Will the FDA approve a disease-modifying treatment for Parkinson's disease before 2029?
48% chance