💊Will FDA approve 50 or more novel drugs in 2025? | Manifold

💊Will FDA approve 50 or more novel drugs in 2025?

Basic

6

Ṁ149

2026

76%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves based on the number of drugs that will be listed here, once the 2025 page is up and complete.

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I bet "No", because based on my analysis, the probability of approving 50 or more novel drugs in 2025 is 72.8%, which is higher than 50%.

The predicted approval numbers in FDA per year until 2025 are forecasted by using the approval new drug numbers in FDA from 2015 to 2022. As a result, 56.5 (95% CI 35.0 - 78.1, S.D 10.77) was shown as a predicted approval number in 2025. The probability of approving 50 or more novel drugs in 2025 will be 72.8% by calculating based on this data.

Therefore, I believe 50 or more new drugs will be approved in FDA in 2025.

Resource:

Retrieved by 10.25.2003, U.S. Food & Drug Administration, Novel Drug Approvals for 2022

https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2022

Novel Drug Approvals for 2022

Innovative drugs often mean new treatment options for patients and advances in health care for the American public.

@lukres this is the last one I was planning to make for now, in case you're waiting.

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