Kalshi has applied to the CFTC for regulatory approval for prediction markets on political control of the House and the Senate. The CFTC is formally reviewing Kalshi's application and seeking public comment on the utility of these contracts.
This market resolves affirmatively if the CFTC approves either this market or any other directly-election-related market hosted by Kalshi before the end of the year.
1,000
3.00Sad day for prediction markets:
Commodity Futures Trading Commission staff have recommended that the agency reject a bid by the exchange Kalshi Inc. to offer contracts that would let people wager $25,000 on which party will control Congress, according to people with knowledge of the matter. While the agency’s five politically appointed commissioners must also vote, they don’t typically override such recommendations.
@cos I haven't been following this closely, why the big shift in predictions from likely yes to likely no?