Surprisingly Julian Assange is free!

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/24/us/politics/julian-assange-plea-deal.html

Is that good news? I hope so.

Some of the more cynical voices say that he will be killed/disappeared as soon as the world stops watching too closely.

Will this happen?

Will Assange survive until years end?

Resolution criteria:

• Resolves "NO" if Assange dies of --any-- causes soon.

• Resolves "NO" if Assange disappears, as reported by mainstream Media or his family

• Resolves "YES" if Assange is alive by years end.

• Resolves "EPIC YES" If Assange is alive, free and well by years end and doesn't serve a prison sentence.

Market conditions:

• I will trade in this market.

Epistemic status:

• Very uninformed. I haven't watched closely how the Assange situation developed over the last few hundred years of his unofficial imprisonment.

Market motivation:

• I made this market to register a cynical -but still uninformed- prediction.

• This is more of a reminder to myself. Maybe I'll post some news if I find some