Will there be a federal law legalizing abortion nationally in the next five years? | Manifold

Will there be a federal law legalizing abortion nationally in the next five years?

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2027

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This market resolves to YES if, by 5/9/2027, the federal government passes a law saying that all 50 states must respect the right to an abortion within some time window (eg the first trimester). A law only guaranteeing the right to certain subsets of women (eg those whose health is in danger) will not count. This market resolves to YES immediately after this happens, even if the law is later repealed or struck down.

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It won't happen this Congress because Republicans have a majority in the House, and it won't happen next Congress because they'll have a majority in the Senate. Seems difficult for this to occur.

Seems a bit more likely now. Not enough to bet more than $5 though :D

wait, lones are gone

it does not appear so unlikely

https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/will-there-be-a-federal-law-banning "Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?" is a matching market

Also, allowing the GOP to sacrifice themselves on the abortion issue provides many electoral benefits for the Dems. Prohibiting that sacrifice is, thus, costly.

Literally 0% chance. Manchinema won't nuke the filibuster for this BS, and the Dems are losing the Senate until at least 2029 (2022/4 will be excellent R years, 2026 will be a good D year, but not enough to take back the Senate).

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