What country will first denote a nuclear weapon in combat?
8
640Ṁ2743050
36%
Russia
20%
United Kingdom
11%
9%
France
7%
Israel
4%
India
4%
United States
2%
North Korea
2%
Pakistan
1.9%
China
If no weapon is ever detonate, this market will remain open indefinitely.
If there's uncertainty as to responsibility, then I will resolve to whichever country the weapon was housed in. For example, if an ostensibly Russian-operated weapon is launched from Belarus, and both countries deny responsibility, this market will resolve to Belarus.
Betting policy: I expect resolution to be pretty much unambiguous, so I'll bet in this market unrestrictedly.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Will a nuclear device be used offensively before April 1, 2025?
1% chance
Which country will be the first to use a nuclear weapon in anger (post WW2)?
What country will detonate the next nuclear weapon?
What country will the third nuclear weapon used in combat hit?
In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, which country is most likely to detonate it first?
What will be the next country to come into possession of a nuclear weapon?
Which countries will detonate a nuclear weapon offensively in 2025?
When will a nuclear weapon be used for military purposes?
In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, where it will be dropped first?
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?
12% chance