What country will first denote a nuclear weapon in combat?
Basic
7
Ṁ2523050
45%
Russia
14%
North Korea
14%
7%
United States
4%
India
4%
Pakistan
1.7%
Iran
1.7%
South Africa
1.6%
Belarus
1.6%
Ukraine
1.5%
Israel
1.3%
United Kingdom
1.2%
France
1.2%
China
If no weapon is ever detonate, this market will remain open indefinitely.
If there's uncertainty as to responsibility, then I will resolve to whichever country the weapon was housed in. For example, if an ostensibly Russian-operated weapon is launched from Belarus, and both countries deny responsibility, this market will resolve to Belarus.
Betting policy: I expect resolution to be pretty much unambiguous, so I'll bet in this market unrestrictedly.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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