In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, which country is most likely to detonate it first? | Manifold

In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, which country is most likely to detonate it first?

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63

Ṁ3215

2033

36%

🇷🇺 Russia

3%

🇺🇸 United States of America

8%

🇰🇵 North Korea

1.5%

🇨🇳 China

0.7%

🇮🇳 India

30%

🇮🇷 Iran

19%

🇮🇱 Israel

2%

Other

First nuclear weapon detonate: which country is responsible for it

Nuclear tests don't count, only actual weapon used for war or strategic purpose connecting to war.

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#🇷🇺 Russia

#🇮🇱 Israel

#Arab-Israeli Conflict

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What about terrorism? Does that count as "other"?

https://www.foxnews.com/us/us-conducts-nuclear-test-nevada-hours-russian-move-revoke-global-nuclear-test-ban.amp

If we get to 2033 without a weapon being used, does this resolve N/A? Does the due date get extended?

@EvanDaniel yes, solves N/A in that case

@Quadrifold It's kind of hateful to design a market to likely resolve N/A when you could easily just add a "nobody" option.

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