Will 10% of New York city die in any year from disaster, before 2035?
Plus
11
Ṁ11182035
3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Some examples of disasters:
-Nuclear strike
-Pandemic
-AI mishap
-Famine
-Tsunami
-Infrastructure collapse, such as from a solar flare
If a disaster affects the city of New York city in New York, we'll refer to the total deaths attributed during the calendar year. We then calculate that as a percent of the prior population. If it's 10% or more, we resolve Yes. If disasters never kill 10%+ in a year, then we resolve No in 2035-Jan.
If there are multiple disasters then we would include them all, for the given year, and add their percents. We would include tourists, or whoever became part of the reported death toll.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a disaster this year with an economic cost of over $100 billion as of December 31, 2024?
52% chance
Will 10% of London die in any year from disaster, before 2035?
2% chance
Will 10% of Boston city die in any year from disaster, before 2035?
2% chance
Will 10% of San Francisco die in any year from disaster, before 2035?
1% chance
[Metaculus] Will New York City experience a hurricane by 2030?
64% chance
Will 10% of San Francisco die in any year from disaster, before 2029?
2% chance
Will a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2100, and what will be the cause?
Will New York City's population be at least as high in 2030 as it was in 2020?
51% chance
Will a single natural disaster event kill more than 50,000 people in 2024?
13% chance
How many of the Ten Biblical Plagues of Egypt will strike New York City in 2024?