Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that Alexander Berger (Open Philanthropy) has been criminally charged with any felony crime.
Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030. Part of a large question series.
Question is global -- charges in any country count.
Charges count even if they do not lead to a conviction, were settled before a conviction, or if he was found not guilty.
Minor misdemeanors do not count, only more serious (i.e. "felony") charges.
Jan 16, 3:32pm: Will Alexander Berger (Open Philanthropy, Center for Applied Rationality) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? → Will Alexander Berger (Open Philanthropy) be charged with any felony crime before 2030? (Previous version accidentally included CFAR incorrect, fixed thanks to Steven.)
1,000
3.00@StevenK Aaah! That must've been some sort of typo, or accidentally pasting in the wrong thing. I've removed that reference in the question, so it should just say OpenPhil now. Thank you!
@jacksonpolack Hmm, do I just post it here and hope you get it first? :-o
@AndrewG any particular reason you think this is up to 50% probable? "bought Ṁ15 YES from 31% to 47%"