What will be the gap between the popular vote and the tipping point state in 2024?
Plus
23
Ṁ1688Jan 2
0.3%
D+6 or higher
1.3%
Between D+4 or D+6
12%
Between D+2 and D+4
83%
Between D+0 and D+2
2%
Between R+0 and R+2
0.3%
Between R+2 and R+4
0.2%
Between R+4 and R+6
0.2%
R+6 or higher
All calculations will exclude faithless electors. 269-269 electoral college scenarios will count for Republicans.
In 2016, this was D+2.8: Clinton won the pop vote by 2.1% and lost the tipping point state of Wisconsin by 0.7%.
In 2020, this was D+ 3.9%: Biden won the popular vote by 4.5% and won the tipping point state of Wisconsin by 0.6%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@NeilG If you uniformly shift the popular vote across every state, which state decided the election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping-point_state
Related questions
Related questions
Which state will be the tipping point in the 2024 US presidential election?
How large will the popular vote margin be in the 2024 presidential election?
What will be the popular vote margin between the top two candidates in the 2024 US presidential election?
How will the 2024 election popular vote compare to the polls? (2-party, 538)
What will be the tipping point state in the 2024 POTUS election?
Which states will be decided by less than 10 points in 2024?
Will the popular vote margin be at least 5% in 2024?
5% chance
Will any candidate get a majority of the popular vote in 2024?
83% chance
Which states will be decided by less than 5 points in 2024?
What will the popular vote margin be in 2024?