In the year following Trump's inauguration: will more government employees be fired or will more people get deported from the country?
I will not bet.
Clarifications:
We're counting total employees who's employment is terminated, not net change in government employees.
I'll consider most dismissals firings, even if say a compensation package is offered in return for employees volunteering to step down.
Update 2025-14-01 (PST): - If there is no consensus or it's too close to call, the market will be resolved as Not Available (NA). (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000
3.00@placebo_username Layoffs/firings. Not net change. So firing 100 and hiring 200 would still count as 100 fired.
@placebo_username I don't think so. But if large numbers are fired it will make the news, and 'DOGE' seem committed to transparency.
In any case, if there is no consensus or it's too close to call I'll resolve NA.
edit:
It is public! https://www.fedscope.opm.gov/
edit2:
assuming you can makes sense of graphs like this:
