Will an explicitly racist or sexist politician get elected to major office in America by the end of 2030?
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23
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2031
47%
chance

Major office= (federal) congress, governor, mayor of one of the 15 biggest cities, or winning at least one state in a presidential primary.

Explicitly racist or sexist = explicitly declares it. They have to say something like "yes I'm racist/sexist/believe in discrimination by race/sex" (can be either left or right). Outparty accusations don't count even if convincing (so Trump wouldn't count, nor would a democrat who supports AA but doesn't explicitly declare support for "reverse racism").

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Would it count if someone explicitly endorses the "great replacement" theory?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Replacement_conspiracy_theory_in_the_United_States

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I think it depends on the details. If they specifically say having a non-white country is bad then yes, but it they just say "mumble mumble cultural changes" maybe not.

Would Sarah Jeong count? Tweeting lots of overtly racist things and then backpedaling later by saying it was all jokes, not very convincingly.

@JonathanRay no, it has to be someone who explicitly endorses being racist or sexist (if she's backpedaling she's probably officially denying it, at least).

Do they have to declare it while running for office? Eg what if an old Facebook post they made when they were a teenager is discovered, that says something like this?

@galaga It has to be something they currently endorse (while running or after election).

Does it count if the politician says something like "I have some internalized racism/sexism since I grew up in a racist/sexist society, and I plan to change things so kids don't grow up in that kind of society" type stuff? As in, explicitly declaring to be racist or sexist but also declaring that they don't believe in discrimination by race/sex.

@TenShino no, they have to affirm a view that racism is good.

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