It has to last at least 2 months. Something like the occupation of South Lebanon would count, while something like what happened in the previous war with Gaza wouldn't. If the occupation period starts in 2024 but ends later, this market with still resolve YES.
1,000
3.00Clarification in response to Israeli remarks about the war strategy: If Israel occupies most of Gaza, but Hamas retains significant territorial control, this will not count despite of how long it takes. However, if Israel occupies the vast majority of the strip, and the situation devolves into a guerilla war, with occasional Hamas attacks, and Israel being unwilling to leave for months, this will resolve YES.
I hope this doesn't make things more confusing. I'm just trying to work the criteria out from the spirit of the question, which was to see if Israel would get "bogged down" in Gaza, the same way we did in South Lebanon and the US did in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Why is this market so much higher than this?
https://manifold.markets/Nostradamnedus/will-gaza-be-under-complete-militar
