Will Anthropic automate AI research in 2024?
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Will this happen?

If Anthropic succesfully automates AI research in 2024 this market resolves YES.
Otherwise this market resolves NO at close (start of 2025).

I will ultimately be using my own judgement and deciding based on the spirit of this market. I plan to be heavily watching Anthropic, investigating what AI researchers believe, and getting input and feedback from others.

A minor amount of irrelevant tasks automated won't count, we are talking about a meaningful amount of AI research automation.

I will NOT bet in this market.

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Do you consider it research, if it is limited to empirical optimisation of architecture? Or does it have to contribute to the theoretical foundation, too?

predicts YES

Most AI research is empirical optimisation of architectures. It should count imo

@Riemann AI automating architecture research counts.

This could be doable with an AutoGPT-style agent, although AI research does have a few different moving parts so I don't know if it'll be achievable as soon as the end of next year (especially since more blind/brute-force AutoML-type stuff hasn't already "automated AI research" in the same sense that Anthropic is seeking to do.)

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