US life tables: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr72/nvsr72-12.pdf. Pres. Trump is a 78 year old non-hispanic white man: my calculations (and note that I am definitely not an actuary and might have made mistakes) based on table 17 suggest his probability of dying within the next five years is about 29%. I would guess he is in better-than-average health.

His father lived to 93. His mother lived to 88. However, pointing in the other direction, his brothers both passed away at younger ages (42 and 71).

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-dan-bongino-secret-service-b2650913.html

I don't know if this will resolve yes, but it will be higher than this at some point

Do you intend for the market to close at end of year 2024?

@Quroe the market closes when trump is replaced or by the end of his term - i updated the end date now

Would this 6-minute CGP Grey video convince you to hold off on resolving this market for some amount of time after Trump leaves office to confirm if it was for health reasons?

https://youtu.be/ig_qpNfXHIU?si=_yOLTBr6BXdi8BXq

Also, what is the definition of "illness" we're playing by here? --Just to make sure we're all in agreement.

What counts as an illness? To take it to the ridiculous argumentative extreme, one could argue that an assassin wanted to create quite the health risk for him.

@Quroe thank you for sharing the video, i will watch the video later. i think your second question is covered by the description.

so ill that he is officially unable to continue in his role, leading to someone else taking over his responsibilities.

@Quroe i watched the video very interesting, if I understand correctly you are implying Trump could fake sickness to pass on the torch to Vance (and not one of his actual family members), is this correct?

Not quite. I'm arguing that he would not show sickness in an attempt to show strength. He wouldn't want people to usurp him.

We probably wouldn't know about an illness until much later.

@Quroe makes sense but no this wouldn’t matter for the market (check my previous comment which explains why)

so ill that he is officially unable to continue in his role, leading to someone else taking over his responsibilities.