A Credit Default Swap is a financial derivative that allows investors to hedge or speculate on the credit risk of a particular entity. Essentially, a CDS is an insurance policy against the default of a borrower. In the context of prediction markets like Manifold, we can draw a parallel by considering the likelihood of certain events (or 'defaults') occurring.
In this case, this market would assess the likelihood of various other markets resolving to a 'Yes' outcome. This approach mirrors the CDS concept, as participants are essentially speculating on the 'default' (or outcome) of these other markets.
Here are the ten open yes/no markets with the most traders.
Resolution Criterion: The market will consider the resolution of ten specific markets. If any of the selected markets resolve to 'NA', it will count as 0.5 towards the total number of 'Yes' resolutions.
1,000
3.00@mods please resolve "5 markets" to NO.
In addition to the below markets, https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the resolved as NO.
We're still at 2.5 markets YES, (see below)
2 markets are open:
https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre (1%, highly likely to resolve NO at end of year)
https://manifold.markets/memestiny/will-andrew-tate-be-found-guilty-of (50%-68% depending on when you look, who knows when this will resolve)
@mods (since creator account is deleted)
Please resolve "2 markets" to YES: Putin president of Russia at end of 2023, and Trump Republican Nominee in 2024 were both YES.
Please resolve "6 markets" to "8 markets" as NO:
Biden Democratic Nominee in 2024, Biden wins Presidential Election in 2024, US Government shutdown in 2023, and Nuclear weapon detonated in 2023 were all NO, and the GPT-4 Sudoku market resolved at 50%, so it's impossible to get to 6 or more YESes.
I like this style a bunch, glad to see more of it! I have a few as well, such as:
/EvanDaniel/long-shotish-bets-how-many-of-these
/EvanDaniel/nuclear-risk-2024-how-many-of-the-8
I think the structure works better if you do "resolves as expected" instead of "resolves Yes" when some of the markets are trading at > 90% and others at < 10%. That is, invert the outcome on some so that they're all either > 50% or all < 50% rather than straddling. That makes the shape of the distribution over the count more informative, and I think would help a (hypothetical) bot be better able to use this market for hedging.
@snoozingnewt I will resolve as soon as I have enough to make the decision.
for example, if any of the top 10 resolve to NO, I will resolve [D] to NO. If two of the top 10 goes to No, I will resolve [CC] to NO
Similarly, if any of the top 10 resolve to YES, I will resolve [AAA] to YES, etc.
I love it, I was wondering why there weren't more financial-derivative-inspired markets on Manifold. In particular insurance.