Will a Chinese company/organization recreate Sora by the end of 2024?
Plus
21
Ṁ2079Jan 1
88%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
It resolves YES if they get something as good as Sora.
Since we do not yet have a good benchmark for judging, we will resolve to public opinions, like a poll on manifolds.
Note: the company/organization, not the location, judges the nationality. For example, if Huawei Tel Aviv lab makes something good, it will resolve this question to YES. In comparison, if MSRA makes something, it does not count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@traders You know what, the margin is small enough that I think I need to do a poll on manifolds. I will consider resolving YES if the poll is statistically significant (p-value < 0.05), but not guarantee.
Related questions
Related questions
Will a European company/organization recreate Sora by the end of 2024?
47% chance
Will Sora 2 be presented before the end of June 2025?
45% chance
Will a Chinese company introduce a smartphone using a domestically made chip below 7nm in 2024?
74% chance
What will be true of OpenAI's Sora* model, at the end of 2025? [*see description]
Will there be an open source video model roughly as good as OpenAI Sora by the end of 2024?
26% chance
Will a Chinese company make and release a semiconductor equal to or less than 5nm by the end of 2024?
30% chance
What bad things will sora be able to generate before 2025
Will Sora be able to generate a 5 second video in less than 2 minutes when it first releases publicly?
75% chance
Will OpenAI’s AI Video model Sora be available to the public in 2024?
9% chance
Can Sora make an accurate clock before 2025?
9% chance