El Nino ending. I think the chances are still >50%, but this market should go down.

El Nino starting to end but temperatures remaining elevated is, imo, a significant upwards update, not downwards.

El Nina/Nino has significantly more impact on the next year's temperatures than current year. Look at the big El Niño/Nina years and biggest temp anomalies are from Jan to March/April.

https://x.com/HarvestProgram/status/1800209626006520284

I think as an effect of reducing sulfur pollution in shipping the earth is still absorbing much more radiation than it’s emitting (on top of the effect from increasing GHG). And this effect will continue to warm planet significantly for years (though ofc el Nina and declining solar cycle will have cooling effects).

75% is about right according to Zeke Haufsfather. Also perhaps consensus climate scientist view is underestimating the warming impact of reducing sulfur pollution which would suggest the price should be higher (I'm most interested in this part of it).

@will58c Anyone have views about Leon Simons ? I tend to think he's onto something with the reduction in sulfate shipping emissions causing significant warming.

However, he seems to be in the minority.

Big fan of this website: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/

@nic_kup That is satellite based. Seems like it should have good coverage but the satellite record has run into problems with calibrating for satellite drift and between satellites. It is good for up to date daily reading but here we need comparison to 2016.

Therefore I prefer the established NASA or NOAA records. Hadley centre record also good but has been slower with data. Berkeley Earth is another possibility. Anyway we have been told it is NASA over a month ago so I don't think that should change.

@ChristopherRandles Thank you! Didn't know about the issues.

January and February 2024 have been hotter than the respective months in 2023

@jBosc el nino

I’m surprised this is just at 53%

@DavidSasaki La Nina coming

@DavidSasaki

@WieDan Any good market about the probability of La Nina being active in each month?

@bohaska
These look fairly dead perhaps time to create new ones further out.

@bohaska I created a couple (for longer periods than 1 month):

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-the-average-enso-oni-be-i

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/will-it-be-el-nino-la-nina-or-neith

As the creator is inactive I say that if conflict between datasets arise NASA will be leading.
Just preventing a possible discussion in a year.

@WieDan Any rulings on what happens if the numbers for 2023 and 2024 are equal?

@StevenK It says "exceed" doesn't seem to require a ruling that's pretty straight forward.

@WieDan I see, so equal numbers resolve as NO?

@StevenK If it's not exceeding then that seems a NO yes