Every month, a Manifold poll is being posted to gain the consensus view of progress towards AGI. Unlike many of the markets and questions on Manifold, these polls will simply ask "has weak AGI been achieved," rather than providing a definition of the term. The goal is that given that the term is so broad, the only way to characterize AI progress is also to allow respondents to vote based upon their own understanding.
The first poll, which only asked if GPT-4o had achieved weak AGI, was posted here: /SteveSokolowski/did-openai-achieve-weak-agi-with-gp
Future polls will not reference any specific model, and will not define "AGI" except to state that the poll does not require that the software system be able to manipulate the physical world. The polls open on the 23rd of each month and close on the 30th.
The proportion of Manifold users who answered YES on the conservative May question, which is more limited than the upcoming polls, surprised some, and there were comments from respondents who would have voted YES if other models were included. With upcoming models, GPT-4o voice, and Copilot, it may be that a majority of respondents agrees that weak AGI has been achieved by year end.
This market will resolve to YES if any monthly poll, starting in June 2024 and ending in December 2024, results in a ratio of YES/(NO + YES) greater than 0.5. The "no opinion" respondents will be ignored. Otherwise, this question will resolve to NO.
See also: