Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Alexander Stubb elected President of Finland
Basic
4
Ṁ60resolved Feb 27
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
A time-sensitive copy of this market:
This market, however closes on 1/14/2024.
This is so we can measure Manifold's calibration against Yglesias's at the relative same point in time given enough traders (which I could make a further meta-market on). Manifold will have a 2 week advantage, but I want it to catch on (I also probably won't add the sports predictions which will obviously give Manifold an advantage). I will also resolve N/A if this actually occurs during the period before 1/14/2024.
Even though it closes on 1/14/2023, it will resolve when the linked market resolves.
Matt predicts 70% for this question
Matt's calibration for reference:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Josh Stein elected governor of North Carolina
99% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: No Biden change in Biden’s cabinet
44% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: No supreme court vacancy
78% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Immigration/border/asylum legislation passes
39% chance
Will @MatthewYglesias's 2024 predictions perform at least as well as his 2023 predictions by his own assessment?
32% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Far-right Freedom Party largest in Austrian Parliament
60% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: No Supreme Court vacancy
86% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Unemployment rate stays below 4%
47% chance
2024 predictions - Matthew Yglesias vs Manifold: No split between the popular vote and the electoral college
70% chance
Matthew Yglesias vs Manifold 2024 time-sensitive predictions: GPT-5 is released
80% chance