Bridge built connecting Ireland to Scotland or England through 2040
6
150Ṁ181
2041
13%
chance

At least some work must have started and project must be funded and on track

Connecting each sides mainland, not islands

(Although stopovers or steps at islands are fine)

You'll be able to travel above water not flying between the countries

  • Update 2025-03-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Bridge Structure Clarification:

    • The bridge must be built completely above water

    • Partial or submerged sections will not meet the criteria

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Is a partially submerged bridge ok ?

The Oresund bridge has some tunnel portions to allow shipping through, but people mostly call it a bridge.

(same question applies to all of these bridge markets)

@Odoacre https://manifold.markets/Ernie/bridge-built-connecting-mainland-it there is some discussion of this question here.

For simplicity I've gone with requiring it be above water

Bridge built connecting mainland Italy to Sicily through 2030
16% chance. At least some work must have started and project must be funded and on track Connecting each sides mainland, not islands (Although stopovers or steps at islands are fine) You'll be able to travel above water not flying between the countries Update 2025-03-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Clarification: The project must have no remaining required unfunded or unplanned steps at the time of resolution. This means that all necessary steps must be fully funded and planned without any outstanding components.

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