What will be my all-time mana profit at the end of 2024?
Mini
7
Ṁ159Dec 31
16,230
expected
1D
1W
1M
ALL
To save you a few clicks, my profit graph as of mid-April:
![](https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FYBdJXIyVg1.png?alt=media&token=0feabd9a-267f-406d-b802-ea67efb0c548)
Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
@nikki I appreciate your enthusiasm but care to explain the large bet on extreme profits? 😅
The gaussian curve is ruined 😥
reposted
My current small bet centered on 8000 mana is based on the assumption my growth will remain approximately linear, if you think it will become exponential, bet it up, if you think I'll suffer sudden huge losses like so many others or become much less active, bet it down, even if you agree with my guess, there's positive expected value in smoothing out the distribution to a Gaussian :)
Related questions
Will I have 10000 Mana in profit during 2024?
58% chance
When will I reach 1 million mana of profits?
How much mana will I spend in 2024?
0.00
Will mana attain value and establish an exchange rate before the end of 2024?
52% chance
What share of the mana supply will be in ... by the end of 2024
Will I donate >1 million mana in total before 2025?
72% chance
How much mana will Manifold sell in 2024?
Will someone reach 1B mana profit on Manifold before EOY 2025?
17% chance
Will my net worth reach 100k mana by the end of 2024?
83% chance