If Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, will RFK be confirmed for a cabinet position within six months?

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resolved Feb 13

Resolved

YES

ALL

Resolves N/A if Trump loses the election.

Resolves YES if RFK is appointed by Trump and confirmed by the Senate by July 20.

🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

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https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-votes-confirm-robert-f-kennedy-jr-health-secretary-rcna191856

He was just confirmed today. Resolving YES.

bought Ṁ30 NO

How does this resolve if Trump successfully uses the recess appointments power to avoid Senate confirmation?

@nonnihil The Senate confirmation is a key part of this question, so a recess appointment wouldn't count.

opened a Ṁ500 NO at 96% order

I think there's at least a decent chance that RFK doesn't get confirmed by the Senate. If you disagree, fill my limit order!

sold Ṁ59 YES

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/12/us/politics/trump-republicans-senate.html

Selling my YES shares - Trump may decide to nominate RFK and avoid a Senate confirmation.

@traders Sorry, I just realized I never put a clear end date for this.

If Trump does win, it may take a few months before everyone in his cabinet is confirmed. So I think a reasonable choice for the close date is July 1, 2024. Any objections?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Maybe make it an even 6 months, so July 20.

bought Ṁ46 YES

@TimothyJohnson5c16 even 6 months sounds good

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