Which countries will make major efforts to influence the 2024 US presidential election?
Basic
4
Ṁ92
2026
79%
Russia
77%
Iran
67%
China

After the 2020 election, the National Intelligence Council issued this report: ICA-declass-16MAR21.pdf (dni.gov). I expect to resolve this question based on a similar report. If no similar official report is made public by the end of 2025, this question will resolve N/A.

Based on the Key Judgments, Russia and Iran would have resolved YES for the 2020 election. All other countries would have resolved NO.

Note Key Judgment 5: "We assess that a range of additional foreign actors—including Lebanese Hizballah, Cuba, and Venezuela—took some steps to attempt to influence the election. In general, we assess that they were smaller in scale than the influence efforts conducted by other actors this election cycle."

I would not include any countries whose attempts are similarly described as "smaller in scale".

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