For the purposes of this market, the seven swing states are: PA, MI, WI, NV, AZ, GA, NC.
The margin swing measures the change in margin from the previous presidential election.
For comparison, in 2020, the margin swing for these seven states was:
NC: -2.31%
NV: 0.03%
WI: 1.40%
PA: 1.88%
MI: 3.01%
AZ: 3.81%
GA: 5.37%
(Positive numbers represent a shift toward Biden, and negative numbers represent a shift toward Trump.)
The standard deviation of these seven values is 2.4%, so in 2020 this market would have resolved to 2.0-2.5%.
1,000
3.00Michigan: -2.8% -> +1.4% = 4.2% shift
Nevada: -2.4% -> +3.1% = 5.5% shift
Pennsylvania: -1.2% -> +1.7% = 2.9% shift
Wisconsin: -0.6% -> +0.9% = 1.5% shift
Arizona: -0.3% -> +5.5% = 5.8% shift
Georgia: -0.2% -> +2.2% = 2.4% shift
North Carolina: 1.4% -> 3.2% = 2.8% shift
Std dev = 1.501%.
Calculating using 2024 results from Nate Silver:
